Other Statistics

Expected MBE Change

The mean MBE score in July 2015 is the lowest it's been since 1988, before many states increased cut scores. Between July 2013 (mean MBE score of 144.3) and July 2013 (mean MBE score of 139.9), the mean MBE has fallen 4.4 points. Based on school admissions profiles in 2013 and 2014, we can expect MBE scores to fall even more for the July 2016 and July 2017 administrations of the bar exam.

Using data published by the NCBE, we can tell how GPA and LSAT increases affect the likelihood of gaining or losing a point on the Multi-State Bar Exam (MBE). A GPA change of .07 translates into about one MBE point; one LSAT point translates into about 1.1 MBE point. When a test-taker's MBE score goes up or down, so do the chances of passing the bar.

At least on average, serious risk law schools did not mitigate the decline in LSAT with their GPA profiles. But some schools did increase GPA at one or more quartile marks. Checking whether the school enrolled more at-risk students than before is tricky, however. Much depends on a law school's admissions strategy. For instance, a school may choose to admit a student with an extreme risk LSAT only if that student's GPA was above its previous GPA-75. Alternatively, a school may admit virtually everybody and wait to see where the chips fall.

We tested nine admissions scenarios to see how they affected MBE scores. Scenario #1: Compared to a student admitted in 2010 with an LSAT equal to the school's 2010 LSAT-25 and a GPA equal to the school's 2010 GPA-75, how many MBE points would we expect a student to gain or lose with numbers matching 2014 LSAT-25 and GPA-75? The other eight scenarios include every combination of GPA and LSAT quartile change between 2010 and 2014.

In total there were 666 tests (74 schools x 9 scenarios), but only six schools saw any improvement in at least one scenario. Of the 666 tests, four saw no change in expected MBE score and 31 saw at least some change in expected MBE score. One school (Detroit Mercy) saw an improvement in all nine scenarios, another (Liberty) in eight of nine. These two schools accounted for more than half of the positive expected values.

The expected values had a wide range. The positive expected values ranged from .37 to 3.16, averaging an additional 1.25 expected MBE points. The negative expected value ranged far wider: -.14 to -14, with an average loss of 5.9 expected MBE points. The serious risk schools with positive values increased the odds of bar passage a little and those with negative values decreased their odds a lot.

Note the school's 2013 first-time bar passage rate, as reported to the ABA, in the first column under the school name. These students started in 2010, the anchor year for the scenarios developed here. Expected MBE score change does not directly translate into proportional bar passage rate change across schools. It depends on the starting point. For instance, if every test-taker in 2013 was securely in the passing zone, expected MBE points Nevertheless, decreases in expected MBE score will generally translate to lower rates.